Container shipping will take the lead in recovery as COVID-19 epidemic has weakened

On June 30, 2020, the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released a report on China's shipping prosperity in the second quarter of 2020. The report shows that in the second quarter of 2020, China's shipping prosperity index was 89.37 points, a slight increase to a relatively sluggish range; China's shipping confidence index was 64.79 points, up 25.73 points from the previous quarter, entering a relatively sluggish range, although the Chinese shipping industry It is still below the dividing line of the economy, but the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on China's shipping industry has greatly weakened.

In the second quarter of 2020, the ship transport enterprise's prosperity index was 93.25 points, an increase of 29.74 points from the previous quarter; the ship transport enterprise's confidence index was 67.8 points, a significant increase of 34.95 points from the previous quarter, although the ship transport enterprise is still in a sluggish range. However, corporate liquidity is relatively sufficient, and corporate financing has become easier. However, from the perspective of various operating indicators, the company's capacity delivery continues to decrease, the space utilization rate continues to decrease, freight income is still decreasing, corporate profits are still decreasing, loan liabilities have increased, labor demand has decreased, and shipowners' willingness to invest in capacity reduce.

The deterioration trend of dry bulk shipping companies slowed down. In the second quarter of 2020, the prosperity index of dry bulk shipping companies was 84.84 points, an increase of 28.17 points from the previous quarter, from a relatively poor range to a relatively poor range; the confidence index of dry bulk shipping companies was 48.39 points, compared with the previous quarter An increase of 27.06 points is still in the heavier recession zone. The overall operation of dry bulk shipping companies is still poor, and entrepreneurs have serious confidence in market operations, but the trend of continued deterioration has slowed down. From the perspective of various operating indicators, the company's capacity is reduced, the ship's turnover rate is greatly reduced, and the unit freight rate continues to decline. Although the operating cost is reduced, the company's profit is still decreasing, the loan liability is increasing, the capacity investment willingness is reduced, and the company's liquidity is more Tension, corporate financing is relatively difficult, and labor demand continues to decrease.

The deterioration trend of dry bulk shipping companies slowed down. In the second quarter of 2020, the prosperity index of dry bulk shipping companies was 84.84 points, an increase of 28.17 points from the previous quarter, from a relatively poor range to a relatively poor range; the confidence index of dry bulk shipping companies was 48.39 points, compared with the previous quarter An increase of 27.06 points is still in the heavier recession zone. The overall operation of dry bulk shipping companies is still poor, and entrepreneurs have serious confidence in market operations, but the trend of continued deterioration has slowed down. From the perspective of various operating indicators, the company's capacity is reduced, the ship's turnover rate is greatly reduced, and the unit freight rate continues to decline. Although the operating cost is reduced, the company's profit is still decreasing, the loan liability is increasing, the capacity investment willingness is reduced, and the company's liquidity is more Tension, corporate financing is relatively difficult, and labor demand continues to decrease.

In the third quarter of 2020, China's shipping prosperity index is expected to be 95.51 points, an increase of 6.51 points from this quarter, entering a weak recession interval; China's shipping confidence index is expected to be 71.54 points, an increase of 6.76 points from this quarter, and maintained in a relatively poor range. According to Zhou Dequan, director of the China Shipping Prosperity Index Compilation Office, the two sides of the shipping port have differences on the forecast of the next season's cargo volume. Shipping companies and shipping service companies generally expect the freight demand in the third quarter to stabilize and increase the ship turnover rate. The cabin utilization index is expected to reach 106.01 points. However, the person in charge of Chinese port companies believes that the port throughput will decline at an accelerated rate. The Chinese port throughput prosperity index is expected to be 90.50 points, becoming the only indicator of the decline in the index value.

Container shipping will take the lead in recovery According to the China Shipping Boom Survey, the third quarter of 2020, the shipping transport enterprise's prosperity index is expected to be 101.45 points, an increase of 8.20 points from this quarter, and enters the prosperity range again. Among them, the container transport enterprise's prosperity index is expected It was 114.59 points, an increase of 23.81 points from this quarter, and rebounded to a relatively prosperous range; however, the ship transport enterprise confidence index is expected to be 81.48 points, an increase of 13.68 points from this quarter. Entrepreneurs are not confident enough and hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future prospects.

It is expected that the deterioration of port enterprises will gradually stabilize. According to the China Shipping Boom Survey, the port business sentiment index is expected to be 97.25 points in the third quarter of 2020, an increase of 8.35 points from this quarter, entering a weak recession. , An increase of 5 points from this quarter, still in a relatively sluggish range. Overall, the operation of Chinese port enterprises is relatively pessimistic, and port entrepreneurs are very worried about the future development of the industry.

The shipping service enterprise confidence index will continue to deteriorate. In the third quarter of 2020, the shipping service enterprise's prosperity index is expected to be 85.87 points, up 1.2 points from this quarter, and maintained in a relatively sluggish range; the shipping service company's confidence index is expected to be 67.84 points, a decrease of 0.72 points from this quarter. In the boom zone, entrepreneur confidence continues to deteriorate. On the whole, the prosperity index and confidence index of shipping service companies are still under the prosperity line, and shipping service entrepreneurs expect the overall situation of the industry to remain relatively pessimistic.

Affected by Saudi Arabia's fuel price war, international fuel prices have plummeted, the price difference between low-sulfur fuel prices and high-sulfur fuel prices has narrowed, and the short-term advantages of desulfurization towers have decreased. According to the survey of China's shipping boom, although 58.89% of shipping companies said that they would not change The desulfurization tower installation plan is fixed, and 33.33% of the ship transportation enterprises will keep the original plan unchanged, and 25.56% of the ship transportation enterprises will also plan to increase the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers; but another 41.11% of the ship transportation enterprises said that they will because of low sulfur The difference between the price of fuel oil and the price of high-sulfur fuel oil has narrowed, and the original plan for installing desulfurization towers has been changed. Even nearly 10% of the shipping transportation companies will also plan to cancel all ship desulfurization tower plans. The empirical pressure brought by the epidemic situation and the installation of desulfurization The increased cost recovery period of the tower makes shipping companies more inclined to use low-sulfur fuel oil in the short term.

As the COVID-19 epidemic situation in most countries at home and abroad has eased, most liner companies have gradually restored their container liner routes. According to the survey of China's shipping boom, 21.43% of liner companies have operated all routes that have been operating normally; 3.57% Of liner companies will be suspended until the end of this year; 21.43% of liner companies will resume all routes within the next quarter; 46.43% of companies will change the route layout according to the uncertain factors of foreign epidemics; the remaining 7.14% of companies will not By regularly restoring its container liner routes, the phenomenon of large-scale suspension will be significantly alleviated.

With the effective mitigation of the domestic epidemic and the promotion of national policies, the manufacturing industry has basically resumed production and production, and it is expected that the business volume of port and shipping companies will increase. According to China Shipping Boom Survey, 14.78% of companies believe that the business volume in the next quarter will rise by more than 20% compared with this quarter; 15.27% of companies believe that the business volume in the next quarter will increase by 10%-20% compared with this quarter; 42.36% of the companies believe that Quarterly business volume is basically the same as this quarter; 21.18% of companies believe that the business volume of the next quarter will drop by 10%-20% compared with this quarter; only 6.40% of companies believe that the business volume of the next quarter will drop by more than 20% compared with this quarter.